By Rob Lovitt, msnbc.com contributor
Fewer travelers will take to the skies this Thanksgiving but planes will be no less crowded, according to a forecast released Thursday by the Air Transport Association of America ?(ATA), the trade group for the U.S. airline industry.
?We?re projecting full flights this Thanksgiving despite a 2 percent decline year over year in the number of passengers traveling on U.S. airlines,? said John Heimlich, ATA?s chief economist.
In total, ATA expects about 23.2 million travelers to fly over the holiday period compared to 23.6 million last year, a drop of approximately 37,000 passengers per day. ATA defines the holiday period as Friday, Nov. 18 to Tuesday, Nov. 29.
The busiest days, says ATA, will be Sunday, Nov. 27 (2.3 million), Friday, Nov. 18 (2.2 million and Monday, Nov. 28 (2.2 million). Not surprisingly, the least-busy day will be Thanksgiving when 1.5 million people are expected to fly.
According to Heimlich and other observers, the downturn in demand stems from travelers? continuing concerns over high unemployment, decreasing disposable incomes and high energy prices.
?The economy is definitely weighing on people,? said Rick Seaney, CEO of FareCompare.com. ?There?s no doubt that after months and months of troubling economic headlines people are saying, 'Hey, should I go to Grandma?s house for Thanksgiving this year?' ?
Unfortunately, that hesitation is unlikely to lead to a plethora of empty seats as the airlines have trimmed schedules to keep capacity in line with demand.
?Load factors should be pretty stable during the period,? said Heimlich. ?On the busiest days, you?ll average loads in the high 80s.?
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Rob Lovitt is a longtime travel writer who still believes the journey is as important as the destination. Follow him at Twitter.?
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